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☆ Russia's economic survival hinges on prolonging the Ukraine war, think tank expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia needs to keep its war with Ukraine going or risk an economic hard landing, Elina Ribakova wrote for the Financial Times. The country's military industry has been a major driver of structural economic strength during the war. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But while this may look good on paper, the country is actually at risk of a hard landing if war efforts cease, Elina Ribakova said. For decades," Ribakova wrote.

Persons: Elina Ribakova, Ribakova, —, Vladimir Putin, That's Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Peterson Institute for International Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow

☆ Russia's resilience to sanctions shows it is 'costly and unattainable' to isolate a large and globally integrated economy, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The primary lesson is that seeking complete isolation of a large, complex and globally-integrated economy is costly and unattainable," Elina Ribakova wrote in the Financial Times on Tuesday. Russia's economy has managed to keep humming because Russian President Vladimir Putin has been preparing for sanctions since 2014. Failures in Russia, lessons for the futureEven so, the West can glean valuable lessons from its experience sanctioning an economy as large as Russia, said Ribakova. Advertisement"In the case of China, the US would need to look for vulnerabilities while remaining realistic about the limitations of sanctions," wrote Ribakova in FT.She added there must be steeper penalties for those who evade sanctions. "The experience with Russia is an invaluable opportunity to sharpen sanctions as a foreign policy tool," she wrote Ribakova.

Persons: —, Elina Ribakova, Vladimir Putin, Ribakova Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, Monetary Fund, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Affairs Program, Kyiv School of Economics, Russia Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, Beijing, China, Taiwan

☆ With eyes on Taiwan, new China ban shows the U.S. may be learning lessons from mistakes with Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Analysts said the U.S. was making such moves with an eye on rising tensions over Taiwan, given that the potential fallout from a conflict between China and Taiwan would be "unimaginable." Yurchenko, who spoke to CNBC ahead of the Wednesday announcement, dubbed the scale of the risks regarding Taiwan as "unimaginable." Beijing, meanwhile, has called for "reunification" with Taiwan, last year describing its status in a white paper as an "unalterable" part of China. watch nowElina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that China was watching the West's approach to Russia closely. Western sanctions against Moscow keep coming, almost 1½ years after Russian forces crossed Ukraine's borders.

Persons: Drew Angerer, Joe Biden, Olena, it's, Olena Yurchenko, Yurchenko, Kyle Bass, Xi Jinping, Biden, Ukraine's Yurchenko, they've, Elina Ribakova, Ribakova, Daniel Ferrie, I'm Organizations: Getty, Wednesday, Foreign Ministry, Economic Security, of, of Ukraine, CNBC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Moscow, Ukraine, European, European Union, Hayman Capital Locations: China, disassociation, Beijing, U.S, Russia, Taiwan, United States, Washington, of Ukraine, India, Taiwan Strait, Ukraine, Ukraine's, Moscow

☆ How U.S. microchips are fueling Russia's military — despite sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Murky supply chainsNot all advanced technologies are subject to Western sanctions on Russia. So, a Russian military, as well as its civilian economy, have become dependent," Sam Bendett, advisor at the Center for Naval Analyses, said. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia are largely limited to Ukraine's Western allies, meaning that many countries continue to trade with Russia. And this is what the Russian industry as well as the Russian military and its intelligence services are taking advantage of," Bendett said. Sanctions clampdownThe burgeoning trade flows have prompted calls from Western allies to either get more countries on board with sanctions, or slap secondary sanctions on certain entities operating within those countries in a bid to stifle Russia's military strength.

Persons: Elina Ribakova, KSE, Sam Bendett, spokespeople, Bendett, Sellers Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductors, Peterson Institute for International Economics, KSE Institute, Kyiv School, Economics, United Arab, Moscow, Royal United Services Institute, U.S ., Center for Naval, Russian, Economic Security, of, CNBC Exports, Union, Russian Federation, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Locations: Russia, Moscow, China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Russia's, U.S, Japan, Germany, Russian, microchips, Hong Kong, of Ukraine, Caucasus, Central Asia, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan

But based on Friday's figures, Russia posted a surplus in March of 181 billion roubles, improving on deficits of 821 billion roubles in February and 1.76 trillion roubles in January. Spending accelerated 34% in the quarter to 8.1 trillion roubles, the preliminary data showed. Overall government income was down 20.8% in the quarter compared with 2022 at 5.7 trillion roubles, led by a 45% dive in energy revenues to 1.64 trillion roubles, the data showed. "The large budget deficit...increases nervousness on the market in relation to the price that geopolitical tensions are costing, and requires efforts directed at improving budget revenues," she said. The central bank has repeatedly warned that the budget deficit poses inflationary risks and may compel it to raise interest rates from the current 7.5%.

Last week's official data showed annual industrial output decline slowed in February, largely thanks to the defence sector, offsetting some of the damage wrought mainly by sanctions on Russia's key energy exports. Russian industrial output fell 1.7% year-on-year in February after a 2.4% drop in January, data from the federal statistics service Rosstat showed. Polevoy estimated that non-defence industrial production shrank about 8% year-on-year, while output of sectors with a high share of state defence orders jumped 36%. The decline in energy revenues has pushed Russia's budget deficit to $34 billion in January-February, compared with a surplus of $4 billion in 2022. LONG-TERM DECLINEAn independent study last month suggested Russia's middle class will shrink as social inequality grows, even if sanctions get relaxed.

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